AFDC (Adaptive Forecast Distribution Control)

Overview

AFDC is a research project on adaptive uncertainty management for forecasting under distribution shift. The goal is to maintain reliable coverage while remaining cost-aware and responsive to regime changes.

Scope (High Level)

• Risk-aware conformal calibration for reliable intervals.
• Drift-aware adjustment of uncertainty bands.
• Decision-aligned control under asymmetric costs.

Status

Research in progress. Preprint and open-source release are pending.